Products
Ranked, explainable signals for the trading desk.
CTRM Partners builds decision-support software for one desk’s strategy. Three modules, one workstation. Every signal carries the driver behind it, and the trader decides.
01 · Pre-Trade
Know where the edge sits before you lift the trade
Geopolitical shocks reprice spreads, arbitrage windows and netbacks faster than a desk can recalculate by hand. Pre-Trade turns that into a ranked list of where to look first, and why.
- Signal Center. A proactive feed that scans the book every cycle and ranks what is moving by agent conviction. The desk opens to a prioritized list, not a blank screen.
- Arb Hunter.RANDOM FOREST Probability-scored calls on each spread widening or tightening by more than $0.50 within five sessions.
- Netback calculators. Every route in the book, scanned continuously, so the arb window shows up as it opens, not after it closes.
- Live spread board. The watched book against its 90-day band: WTI roll, Cushing/MEH, Midland/Cushing, LLS/HLS, MEH/Brent, Brent/Dubai.
02 · Risk Analytics
Catch the move that doesn’t fit the book’s own history
Four named, testable models watch the desk’s markets continuously. Each one is inspectable, backtested and calibrated before it ships a signal.
Predicts whether each spread will widen or tighten by more than $0.50 within 5 sessions. Two heads, open and compress, pooled across every tradable.
Feeds Signal Center & Spread CockpitFits a 21-day slope to each pipeline’s nominations and flags ramps and fades. Tuned to surface the Cushing-to-Gulf build the desk asked to be warned about.
Feeds Signal Center, Arb Monitor, Cargo & FlowsLearns each spread’s normal daily move and flags days that sit outside the 540-day distribution. Calibrated to a 5% contamination rate.
Feeds Signal Center & Spread CockpitFits an ARIMA model per spread and projects 7 sessions forward with a 95% cone. Backtested against a naive carry-forward so you can see where it actually adds skill.
Feeds Spread Cockpit forecast conePosition & P&L anomalies
Isolation Forest over daily P&L, position and exposure by book. Flags the moves that don’t fit the book’s history, with the driver attached.
Spread forecasts with a cone
ARIMA per spread, seven sessions forward with a 95% confidence cone, backtested against a naive carry-forward.
Curve & price validation
Stale, inverted or out-of-band curves caught before they hit end-of-day valuation, with the exception routed to the right person.
03 · Trade Analysis
Read the flows, not just the prints
The same engine watches physical movement, so the desk sees where the arb is actually clearing, not just where screens are printing.
Flow Scout
OLS trend on pipeline nominations: flags the ramps and fades that move landed economics before screens reprice.
Backtests you can read
Every agent is measured against a naive baseline on the desk’s own history. The scorecard lives in the workstation, not in a slide.
Signal-versus-action review
What the engine ranked, what the desk did, and what it cost or made. The feedback loop that tunes the models to your strategy.
04 · CTRM Agents
The same engine, pointed at Endur or RightAngle
Your CTRM already captures every deal, movement, curve and settlement. The problem is that it reports; it doesn’t notice.
Exception triage
Settlement, invoicing, scheduling and nomination exceptions ranked by dollar impact and age.
Reconciliation agents
CTRM vs. ERP, CTRM vs. pipeline and terminal statements, CTRM vs. broker confirms.
Deal-capture validation
New deals checked against counterparty, product, location and pricing norms; the odd ones surfaced for a human.
Ask-your-CTRM
Natural-language questions over your own data, answered with the query shown, not hidden.
ARC
All of it ships together as ARC
The Arbitrage & Routing Console: one workstation for the crude desk, built the same way for yours.
How it’s built
Named models, backtests, people in the loop
Named, inspectable models
Random Forest, OLS, Isolation Forest, ARIMA, and plain rules where rules are enough. No black boxes.
Backtested before it ships
Every agent is measured against a naive baseline on your history before it produces a live signal.
Human-in-the-loop by design
Agents draft, rank and explain. People approve. Nothing writes back to the CTRM or lifts a trade on its own.
Deployed in your tenancy
Runs inside your cloud, read-only against the CTRM to start, inheriting your InfoSec controls.
How a build works
Crawl, walk, run, with a decision gate at week four
Discovery
Your strategies, your books, your data feeds, and the decisions the desk makes by hand today.
Pilot
Deployed in your tenancy, inheriting your InfoSec controls. First signals by week 3. Decision gate at week 4.
Build-out
Models tuned to your strategies, integration with Endur or RightAngle positions, scheduled runs, documentation your team owns.
If it stops at the gate, you keep a working environment, a live agent and full documentation.
See the Signal Center on live data.
Twenty minutes on a screen share. Request the overview deck or a live walkthrough.
(936) 537-6914 · richard.martinez@ctrmpartners.com · The Woodlands, Texas