ARC — Arbitrage & Routing Console
Trading the right side of volatility.
Bespoke software for one desk’s strategy. Geopolitical shocks, sanctions, chokepoint disruption, OPEC+ moves and freight dislocation reprice spreads, arbitrage windows and netbacks faster than a desk can recalculate by hand. ARC turns that uncertainty into ranked, explainable signals so the desk consistently moves on the right side of the trade.
Why now
Uncertainty is the market
What the desk sees first
The Signal Center
A proactive feed that scans the book every cycle and ranks what is moving by agent conviction, so the desk opens to a prioritized list of what to look at, and why, not a blank screen.
Ranked by conviction
Highest-confidence moves surface first; the desk triages in seconds.
Every signal explained
Each call shows its driver: probability, spread level, utilization, severity.
Human lifts the trade
Decision support, not orders. Nothing here acts on its own.
The engine
How ARC thinks
Four purpose-built agents scan the desk’s markets continuously. Each is a named, testable model, backtested and calibrated.
Predicts whether each spread will widen or tighten by more than $0.50 within 5 sessions. Two heads, open and compress, pooled across every tradable.
Feeds Signal Center & Spread CockpitFits a 21-day slope to each pipeline’s nominations and flags ramps and fades. Tuned to surface the Cushing-to-Gulf build the desk asked to be warned about.
Feeds Signal Center, Arb Monitor, Cargo & FlowsLearns each spread’s normal daily move and flags days that sit outside the 540-day distribution. Calibrated to a 5% contamination rate.
Feeds Signal Center & Spread CockpitFits an ARIMA model per spread and projects 7 sessions forward with a 95% cone. Backtested against a naive carry-forward so you can see where it actually adds skill.
Feeds Spread Cockpit forecast coneNamed, testable models
Random Forest, OLS, Isolation Forest, ARIMA. Each one inspectable, not a black box.
Backtested, not asserted
Every agent is measured against a naive baseline before it ever ships a signal.
Human-in-the-loop
Agents draft; a trader approves. Nothing here lifts a trade on its own.
Reading the flows
Real flows, not just prices
The same engine watches physical movement, USGC exports split Europe vs. Asia, so the desk sees where the arb is clearing, not just where screens are printing.
Where the barrels go
Cargo loadings
A vessel-level read of USGC liftings by destination and by grade: the physical evidence underneath every arbitrage signal.
How a bespoke build works
Crawl, walk, run, with a decision gate at week four
Discovery
Your strategies, your books, your data feeds, and the decisions the desk makes by hand today.
Pilot
Deployed in your tenancy, inheriting your InfoSec controls. First signals by week 3. Decision gate at week 4.
Build-out
Models tuned to your strategies, integration with Endur or RightAngle positions, scheduled runs, documentation your team owns.
If it stops at the gate, you keep a working environment, a live agent and full documentation.
See ARC running against this month’s spreads.
Twenty minutes on a screen share. Request the overview deck or a live walkthrough.
(936) 537-6914 · richard.martinez@ctrmpartners.com · The Woodlands, Texas